Page 19 - Geopolítica del Mundo Actual. Una Visión Multidisciplinar

GEOPOLÍTICA DEL MUNDO ACTUAL. UNA VISIÓN MULTIDISCIPLINAR:
Cultura de Paz, Conflictos, Educación y Derechos Humanos
There are two contradictions at work: dynamic vs static, and equality vs inequality. Pursuit of dynamism leads to inequality and pursuit of equality leads to statism (state-ism!), both unbearable.
The intervals are short and about equal, like nine years; with a period of four years 1976-80 with no clear policy at all but the search for one, with mass meetings, debates, posters big and small. Periods of ten years gives 1949-1959-1969-1979- 1989-1999-2009, capturing the Great Leap, the Cultural Revolution and Tian Anmen, but not the confusion, Deng policy, the directives from the Assembly of 1998, and the 17th Congress. We stick to the nine years hypothesis.
Why nine? No idea. The Chinese philosopher Ssu-Ma Ch’ieniv had a theory of turning points in Chinese history between “bad” and “good” emperors, the repressive, strengthening the top, the good ones being benign to the bottom. We are talking about the time needed to take out the positive aspects of a policy before the negative aspects become so overwhelming that time has come for turning, not 180 degrees, that means backward, but something more like 90 degrees. The Soviet Union failed to respect the signals and clung to the same course, hoping for the hegelian transition from quantity to quality: who perseveres will be rewarded and communism will be ushered in. The USA is doing the same, maintaining an empire with 700+ bases in 130+ countries, hoping that world hegemony will stay. The Soviet Empire collapsed. So will the US Empire.
Imagine a dimension for the epistemology of change. There is automatic “turning point
command”on the one end, and“human command” on the other. Turning, regardless of what humans demand, and on the other end human will superimposed on what dialectic commands. Daoist philosophy is somewhere in- between. The yin-yang dialectic is a force to be used, surfing on top of it, or it will sooner or later ride on top of us. Some sufficiency added to freedom as insight in necessity. But that necessity, the yin-yang dialectic working its way regardless of human will, will in the longer run have the upper hand. There is strength in a model with a process perspective with no time limit.
The others have mainly a necessary condition to get the process started: buddhism precept practice, islam the five pillars practice, Western liberal the free market, Western marxist the violent or nonviolent revolution, and the Japanese transcendence of some basic contradictions. But, maybe the others can learn, and become better at challenge-response, not only as will, but as “surfing” on forces? Johan Galtung: “50 Years: 100 Peace & Conflict Perspectives’’, TUP, 2008, Chinese People’s Associarion for Peace and Development, 09-09-2010. Chapter [37] THE SIX CHINAS: A PEACE & CONFLICT PERSPECTIVE.
[1] Diagnosis.
That there are (at least) five autonomy movements in the world’s most populous and at the same time oldest country (from -221; there are older, but not autonomous countries) is not surprising. Those moves for autonomy are along the periphery, indicative of han China having overstretched at some point in history (in Hong Kong-Macao others overstretched into a majority). Except for Taiwan autonomy moves are built around non- han idioms, faiths, myths and a sense of territorial attachment.Thus, classical conditions for secession, irredentism, and claims for independence, are all present.
[2] Prognosis.
The obvious prognosis is status quo with the Chinese center controlling han and non-han peripheries through carrot (clientelism, use of
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